Will Marco Rubio announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Marco Rubio announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread. The astronomical 1,387% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing given Rubio's current position as Secretary of State and the 350-day timeframe remaining—a presidential announcement from a sitting cabinet member would be highly notable and not implausibly unlikely. The recent price movement from 6¢ to 7¢ and moderate cliff risk index of 13 indicate some market activity, but the lack of liquidity means any actual trade could dramatically shift the quoted price.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRUBIORUN-28-27APR01 yes 100