What is the current probability for "Will Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 94¢ (94% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 25, 2026. 33 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 261.2% and 4747.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals despite the high 83¢ price, with zero 24-hour volume, only $793 open interest, and a massive 26¢ spread indicating thin order books.

██████████████████████████████████████░░

94¢

Bid/Ask 82/99¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $249.87·OI $1,054.98·Closes May 25, 2026·33d remaining

KXSERIEATOP4-26-ACM

7-day price876 snapshots · 10 regime

96¢81¢ current

Apr 863¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals despite the high 83¢ price, with zero 24-hour volume, only $793 open interest, and a massive 26¢ spread indicating thin order books. The 7-day price collapse from 88¢ to 68¢ combined with astronomical realized volatility of 1320% and a yield ratio of 5.87 suggests the market may be mispricing Milan's top-4 odds as positions unwind ahead of the May 2026 expiration. The "No" side's 2001% implied yield is a red flag for potential liquidity crises or forced liquidations rather than genuine fundamental disagreement about Milan's Serie A prospects.

Resolution rules

If Milan is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Serie A season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 261.2%

IY (No) 4747.7%

Adj IY 4748%

CRI 4

RV 1684%

VR 9.37

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	261.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4747.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4748%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1684%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.37	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:26:49 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:23:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSERIEATOP4-26-ACM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →