Will Mullins McLeod be the Democratic nominee for Governor in South Carolina?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Mullins McLeod be the Democratic nominee for Governor in South Carolina?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over 18 months until resolution, with zero 24-hour volume and only $459 in open interest across a 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over 18 months until resolution, with zero 24-hour volume and only $459 in open interest across a 9¢ spread. The price has collapsed 70% over the past week (from 10¢ to 3¢), though the current 11¢ quote suggests recent recovery, and the astronomical 2086% implied yield on the Yes side indicates minimal conviction behind the 11% probability. The high cliff risk index of 32 and neutral regime score suggest this is a speculative position with limited market depth rather than a genuine assessment of McLeod's nomination chances.
Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If Mullins McLeod wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 South Carolina Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVSCNOMD-26-MMCL yes 100