Will Nottingham Forest be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Nottingham Forest be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. The market is pricing Nottingham Forest's relegation at just 14%, but the extreme 6,412% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given only $791 in daily volume against $32.7k open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing Nottingham Forest's relegation at just 14%, but the extreme 6,412% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given only $791 in daily volume against $32.7k open interest. With 38 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 745%, this contract exhibits classic characteristics of a thin, speculative market where the massive yield differential between Yes (6,412%) and No (143%) likely reflects the difficulty of actually executing the Yes position rather than genuine probability assessment. The recent price stability (12¢ to 13¢ over 7 days) and neutral regime suggest the market hasn't received significant new information, making the extreme yield metrics more of a liquidity artifact than a true opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Nottingham Forest is relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLRELEGATION-26-NFO yes 100