Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $118k open interest, and an unusually wide 70¢ spread suggesting significant pricing uncertainty between buyers and sellers.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $118k open interest, and an unusually wide 70¢ spread suggesting significant pricing uncertainty between buyers and sellers. The 46¢ price implies a modest 46% probability of o1 launching a token by mid-2026, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 68.6% appears attractive relative to the No-side's 49.8%, indicating potential mispricing or high risk premium for the affirmative position. The extraordinary 1083% realized volatility and 13.16 vol ratio, combined with a recent 9¢ price jump over seven days, suggest this market has experienced sharp sentiment swings, though the neutral regime score and substantial time to resolution (625 days) mean significant new information could still arrive to reshape pricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xdd3d42c081d91ecf2a99f5db66968f3e88daf162eec39f0e1d9ec6f50072e33b yes 100