What is the current probability for "Will Pablo Fornals be in the Spain World Cup final squad?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 62¢ (62% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 16, 2026. 47 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Pablo Fornals be in the Spain World Cup final squad?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 500.2% and 1223.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Pablo Fornals be in the Spain World Cup final squad?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Pablo Fornals be in the Spain World Cup final squad?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Pablo Fornals be in the Spain World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing June 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $198.85 open interest, making the 80¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 10¢ spread.

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62¢

Bid/Ask 61/71¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $424.25·Closes Jun 16, 2026·47d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-PFOR

7-day price8 snapshots · 19 regime

75¢61¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 28

Analysis

11d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $198.85 open interest, making the 80¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 10¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields (268.5% for Yes vs. 1462% for No) suggest the No side is severely underpriced relative to risk, indicating possible mispricing in a thin market. With 58 days to the June 2026 close and recent downward price movement from 75¢ to 70¢, this contract appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market.

Resolution rules

If Pablo Fornals is selected for the final squad for the Spain national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.2%

IY (No) 1223.8%

Adj IY 512%

CRI 2

Overround 22.8%

LAS 0.16

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1223.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	512%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	22.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.16	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 12:33:07 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 12:23:10 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-PFOR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →