Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing June 3, 2026. The market is pricing in a 38% probability that Palantir will exceed 1020 total customers by Q1 2026, but the extreme 1299% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the contract's risk-reward profile, particularly given the company's historical customer growth trajectory.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 38% probability that Palantir will exceed 1020 total customers by Q1 2026, but the extreme 1299% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the contract's risk-reward profile, particularly given the company's historical customer growth trajectory. With only $103.61 in 24-hour volume against $1,336.74 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for a market closing in 48 days, and the realized volatility of 885% indicates substantial price uncertainty despite the neutral regime. The sharp 48-cent price movement over seven days (25¢ to 37¢) combined with a 2.65 vol ratio and 0.7 info arrivals per hour suggests active repricing, though the low cliff risk index of 2 indicates minimal binary event risk before expiration.
Resolution rules
If Palantir Technologies Inc. reports above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPLTR-26MAYCUST-1020 yes 100