Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $99k open interest and a massive 73¢ spread—suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The asymmetric implied yields (402% for Yes vs. 50% for No) and extraordinary 1153% realized volatility indicate wild price swings, likely driven by sporadic large trades rather than fundamental shifts in legislative probability. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the 2.5 info arrivals per hour suggest modest legislative activity, but the high cliff risk and vol ratio of 9.14 warn that this illiquid market could gap sharply on any concrete policy developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the GRID Act (119th) — Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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