Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $502k open interest and a massive 51¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 28¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $502k open interest and a massive 51¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 28¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 346.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 258-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or market participants pricing in substantial uncertainty about Guskov's path to a title shot and championship victory. The 426% realized volatility and 2.32 vol ratio signal this is a highly speculative position with minimal recent price discovery, making the current quote potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf24f3cddc9b6704ede387e44162219eb3491f9b645c596fd8e0bd454a98fe61c yes 100