Will Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026?
0xce92e2efdc13584f681266b443bbfe7671a11c5295234621eda97258207b894b · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Frank Ocean release a new song 2026? · match confidence 0.67 · close-time delta 207h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 470.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 42.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 3.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1373% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 6.01 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 471% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
330 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xce92e2efdc13584f681266b443bbfe7671a11c5295234621eda97258207b894b yes 100