Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 89% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1060
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 1070
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$120
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 3, 2027
142 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1100 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1100
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1100
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1130 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1130
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1130
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1120 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1120
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1120
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1110 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1110
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1110
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1090 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1090
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1090
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1080 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1080
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1080
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1070 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1070
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1070
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1060 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1060
KXPLTR-26NOVCUST-1060
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Palantir will report more than 1,060 total customers by Q3 2026. The prediction sits at 89%, indicating high confidence in reaching this customer threshold. Palantir's ability to cross this milestone depends primarily on its enterprise sales execution and customer acquisition pace in the first half of 2026. The market has already priced in 1,060 customers as highly likely; meaningful uncertainty emerges only above 1,070 customers, where conviction drops to 85%. The key driver is whether the company maintains or accelerates its recent customer growth rate—Palantir must add a net 50+ customers per quarter to stay on pace. Resolution occurs in late 2026 when Palantir reports third-quarter financial results and customer metrics.
- ›Palantir's reported customer count at Q2 2026 and Q3 2026 earnings, compared against historical quarterly net-adds of 40-60 customers
- ›Enterprise segment revenue trends and win rates in Fortune 500 accounts during H1 2026, which correlate with total customer count
- ›Management guidance or revised customer growth outlook during mid-2026 earnings calls or investor presentations
- ›Customer churn or retention rates, particularly among smaller or lower-tier customers that affect total headcount
- ›The competitive landscape—whether alternative vendors gain share in government/commercial sectors during 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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