SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·9 source contracts·Kalshi 9·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 2, 2026 · 39d

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026

Leader sits at 96% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

96%

Above 1040

runner-up 92¢leader 96¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

92¢

Above 1050

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$4

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 2, 2026

39 days

Venue

Kalshi

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove 1040: 96% (23 days, 10 points)Above 1040: 96% on 2026-07-10Above 1050: 92% (23 days, 21 points)Above 1050: 92% on 2026-07-25Above 1060: 81% (23 days, 22 points)Above 1060: 81% on 2026-07-25
Above 104096¢Above 105092¢Above 106081¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 23d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This prediction indicates an expectation that Palantir will report at least 1,020 customers when it releases Q1 2026 results. The 96% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome based on recent customer growth trends. Palantir has demonstrated consistent customer acquisition momentum, particularly in government and commercial sectors. The key driver supporting this level is the company's recent quarterly reports showing steady customer additions. A downside scenario would require a significant slowdown in sales conversion or customer expansion that hasn't been reflected in recent disclosures. The resolution occurs when Palantir publishes its official Q1 2026 earnings report, which typically happens in May or early June 2026. Market participants are pricing in continued execution rather than exceptional growth, suggesting the bar of 1,020 customers is viewed as achievable given recent performance trends.

  • Palantir's most recent quarterly customer count and historical growth rate trajectory
  • Customer acquisition velocity in government contracts versus commercial expansion efforts
  • Churn or customer retention rates that would offset new additions
  • Timing and visibility of large commercial or government deals that contribute to annual customer growth
  • Difference between reported customer count (how Palantir defines a customer) versus actual bookings or AUM growth

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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