Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1040
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 1050
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 2, 2026
39 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1070 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1070
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1070
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1100 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1100
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1100
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1090 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1090
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1090
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1080 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1080
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1080
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1060 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1060
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1060
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1050 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1050
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1050
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1040 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1040
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-P1040
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1075 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1075
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-1075
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1065 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1065
KXPLTR-26AUGCUST-1065
Analysis
This prediction indicates an expectation that Palantir will report at least 1,020 customers when it releases Q1 2026 results. The 96% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome based on recent customer growth trends. Palantir has demonstrated consistent customer acquisition momentum, particularly in government and commercial sectors. The key driver supporting this level is the company's recent quarterly reports showing steady customer additions. A downside scenario would require a significant slowdown in sales conversion or customer expansion that hasn't been reflected in recent disclosures. The resolution occurs when Palantir publishes its official Q1 2026 earnings report, which typically happens in May or early June 2026. Market participants are pricing in continued execution rather than exceptional growth, suggesting the bar of 1,020 customers is viewed as achievable given recent performance trends.
- ›Palantir's most recent quarterly customer count and historical growth rate trajectory
- ›Customer acquisition velocity in government contracts versus commercial expansion efforts
- ›Churn or customer retention rates that would offset new additions
- ›Timing and visibility of large commercial or government deals that contribute to annual customer growth
- ›Difference between reported customer count (how Palantir defines a customer) versus actual bookings or AUM growth
Recently closed in general
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026last 90% · 2d
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 5d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 9d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.