What is the current probability for "Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 607 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 941.7% and 3.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

KalshiDec 31, 2027607 days left

Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 4¢ spread.

Open on Kalshi JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

5¢

$166 volume

$133 liquidity

67% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$249

Best sibling

Léa Seydoux 15¢

Ticker

KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-PAU

Price history

5¢ current

Apr 11, 2026Apr 26, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 10¢

Kalshi

4¢ spread

BidSize

6¢28

5¢77

4¢3

3¢200

2¢200

AskSize

10¢17

12¢200

26¢200

54¢49

55¢635

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Paul Mescal is cast in The White Lotus: Season 4 before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Identifier

KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-PAU

Event family

KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$249

Outcomes

Highest price

Léa Seydoux 15¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Paul Mescal

kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-PAU

6¢$0$0—

Léa Seydoux

kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-LEA