Toni Collette to be cast in The White Lotus
Toni Collette is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27.
Price history
7¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
If Toni Collette is cast in The White Lotus: Season 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Toni Collette
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Oscar Isaac 49¢
Range
3¢-49¢
Family volume
$246
Identifier
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-TON
Jul 11, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$246
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Toni Collette is cast in The White Lotus: Season 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-TON
Event family
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$246
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Oscar Isaac 49¢
Current share
0%
Oscar Isaac
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-OSC
Jodie Comer
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JOD
Toni Collette
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-TON
Deepika Padukone
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-DEE
Léa Seydoux
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-LEA
Marion Cotillard
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-MAR
Andrew Scott
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-AND
Emma Corrin
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-EMM
Dev Patel
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-DEV
Adam Driver
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-ADA
Barry Keoghan
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-BAR
Florence Pugh
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-FLO
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JAC
Jeremy Strong
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JER
Cate Blanchett
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-CAT
Isabelle Huppert
kalshi · KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-ISA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.