What is the current probability for "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 64¢ (64% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2362.1% and 7465.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing near even odds (51¢) for Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.0%, with extraordinarily high implied yields (2609% for Yes, 2826% for No) reflecting the imminent 13-day expiration and thin $59.8K open interest.

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64¢

Bid/Ask 64/64¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $7,404.34·OI $64,193.48·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXGDP-26APR30-T2.0

7-day price109 snapshots · 57 regime

66¢64¢ current

Apr 849¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing near even odds (51¢) for Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.0%, with extraordinarily high implied yields (2609% for Yes, 2826% for No) reflecting the imminent 13-day expiration and thin $59.8K open interest. The extreme yield figures and 124% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty, though the tight 1¢ spread and modest 24h volume of $5.7K indicate relatively low liquidity for a near-resolution event. With the Advance Estimate due before market close on 4/30/2026, this is essentially a binary bet on official GDP data release, and the neutral regime score (0.341) suggests no strong directional conviction from recent price action (down 1¢ over 7 days).

Resolution rules

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2362.1%

IY (No) 7465.4%

Adj IY 7349%

CRI 2

RV 174%

VR 0.34

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2362.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7465.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	7349%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	174%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:04:39 PM

Observability lowEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGDP-26APR30-T2.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →