Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market has experienced sharp downward price movement over seven days, dropping from 38¢ to 31¢, reflecting declining confidence in above-2.5% Q1 2026 GDP growth as we approach the April 30th resolution date with just 13 days remaining.
Analysis
The market has experienced sharp downward price movement over seven days, dropping from 38¢ to 31¢, reflecting declining confidence in above-2.5% Q1 2026 GDP growth as we approach the April 30th resolution date with just 13 days remaining. The extreme implied yield of 6336% on the Yes side signals either deep mispricing or exceptional tail risk, though the modest $4,926.70 daily volume and $44,839 open interest suggest limited liquidity to exploit any arbitrage opportunity. With realized volatility at 447% and an info arrival rate of 0.9 events per hour, market participants are pricing in significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime score (0.409) suggests no clear directional consensus despite the recent bearish repricing.
Resolution rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGDP-26APR30-T2.5 yes 100