Real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q2 2026
Above 3.0% is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 9 inside Will real GDP increase by more than.
Price history
33¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 3.0%
Rank
#7 of 9
Leader
Above 0.0% 97¢
Range
5¢-97¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.0
May 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$41
Family rank
#7 of 9
9 outcomes · Will real GDP increase by more than
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.0
Event family
Will real GDP increase by more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Above 0.0% 97¢
Current share
3%
Above 0.0%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.0
Above 0.5%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.5
Above 1.0%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0
Above 1.5%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.5
Above 2.0%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.0
Above 2.5%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5
Above 3.0%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.0
Above 3.5%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.5
Above 4.0%
kalshi · KXGDP-26JUL30-T4.0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 33% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.