Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31 is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1.8M
Identifier
0x2f224fca...519d
Jun 19, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$1.8M
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x2f224fca…519d
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.8M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31 7¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
low
Event type
political
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.