Israeli forces enter Beirut by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
22%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$111K
20 contracts
Top contract
11¢
$46K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Russia enter” vs “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: July 31
0xe271ff…9e0a
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: June 30
0x208a4b…0610
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: May 31
0x5298a3…fd39
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by...?: May 31
0x90e100…af8d
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: June 30
0x0d41f6…b27a
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?: May 31
0x6fd1df…af1c
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: June 30
0x3e63b0…af1f
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: June 30
0x3e3143…3643
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...?: May 31
0xb744bc…7dc5
Will Russia enter Stinky by...?: May 31
0xe26dcf…8415
Will Russia enter Myrne by...?: May 31
0x9391cd…31b4
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: June 30
0xbf175d…13fa
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: May 31
0x3d75d9…6384
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?: May 31
0xda7018…cf6d
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: May 31
0x46ea2e…77d5
Will Russia enter Borova by...?: May 31
0xec843b…de04
Cluster 2
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Cluster 3
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?: June 30
0x8d6e53…81fc
Cluster 4
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
0x9049d9…ee96
What moved the line
- Apr 27May 31↑27pp16→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 2June 30↓26pp46→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓25pp39→14¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↑24pp50→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 1June 30↓24pp70→46¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.