Israeli forces enter Beirut by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 8 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
9%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Russia enter” vs “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: June 30
0x3e63b0…af1f
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: June 30
0xbf175d…13fa
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: June 30
0x208a4b…0610
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: July 31
0xe271ff…9e0a
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: June 30
0x3e3143…3643
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: June 30
0x0d41f6…b27a
Cluster 2
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31
0x2f224f…519d
Cluster 3
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?: June 30
0x8d6e53…81fc
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Israeli forces will enter Beirut by a specified date. The 11% probability reflects market assessment that direct Israeli military entry into Lebanon's capital remains unlikely in the near term, though not impossible. The main factors keeping probability low are the current ceasefire framework, international pressure against escalation, and the costs of urban warfare. However, the probability isn't negligible because escalation risks persist—Hezbollah provocation, Israeli security concerns, or regional instability could trigger military action. Key upcoming indicators include ceasefire compliance reports, Israeli defense ministry statements, and Hezbollah activity levels. Any significant cross-border attack or deterioration of the ceasefire arrangement could substantially increase the probability. Resolution depends on whether Israeli military operations cross into Beirut's boundaries before the contract deadline.
- ›Current ceasefire status and enforcement mechanisms between Israel and Lebanese forces, with compliance tracking as the primary real-time indicator
- ›Hezbollah military activity and cross-border incidents, particularly rocket or drone launches that could trigger Israeli response
- ›Israeli government statements on red lines and military objectives, including official defense ministry assessments of Beirut entry necessity
- ›International diplomatic pressure and constraints, including US position on escalation and regional coalition alignment
- ›Urban combat assessment and military doctrine—Israeli operational planning for Beirut entry costs versus strategic objectives
What moved the line
- Jun 16June 30↑6pp16→22¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14June 30↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12June 30↑4pp4→8¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14July 31↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13June 30↓3pp20→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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