Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
8%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31
0x2f224f…519d
Analysis
This market estimates a 12% chance that Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Iranian monarchist opposition figure, will physically enter Iran by December 31, 2026. The relatively low probability reflects the significant barriers to his return: the Iranian government's hostility toward the former shah's family and tight border security. Markets assign only 4% odds for entry by June 30, suggesting traders expect any return to take longer, if it occurs at all. The main upside catalyst would be major political instability in Iran or a shift in regime control that materially weakens central authority. The December contract's price suggests market participants view a full-year window as necessary for meaningful probability of entry.
- ›Current Iranian government control of borders and airports remains functionally intact, making unauthorized entry logistically difficult
- ›No public signals or credible reporting indicates Reza Pahlavi has active plans or capability to enter Iran in 2026
- ›Historical precedent: no exiled Iranian royal or major opposition leader has successfully returned during active regime control since 1979
- ›Probability peaks in December rather than mid-year (4% vs. 11%), indicating markets expect change would require prolonged crisis or negotiated transition
- ›Recognition and legitimacy gaps: even a U.S. recognition contract prices at 11%, suggesting external support alone insufficient for physical entry
Recently closed in iran
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- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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