What is the current probability for "Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 7, 2027. 260 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3365.4% and 5.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4442.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation of Velovic's winning chances or market dysfunction around a niche entertainment outcome.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $14,060.35·OI $1,262,599.86·Closes Jan 7, 2027·260d remaining

KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-RIZ

7-day price8 snapshots · 115 regime

4¢4¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 17

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4442.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation of Velovic's winning chances or market dysfunction around a niche entertainment outcome. The $1.17M open interest against just $19.2K daily volume indicates illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and raising questions about whether this reflects genuine probability or thin-market distortion. With 266 days to expiry and a notably high 32 Cliff Risk Index, the market structure appears fragile despite the neutral regime score.

Resolution rules

If Rizo Velovic is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3365.4%

IY (No) 5.8%

Adj IY 1262%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3365.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1262%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:57:20 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-RIZ yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →