Will the Rolex Index hit $12,550 (HIGH) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will the Rolex Index hit $12,550 (HIGH) by April 30?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market prices an extremely unlikely move to $12,550 at just 3¢, implying the Rolex Index needs to surge roughly 50%+ from current levels in 14 days, yet the astronomical 86,061.9% implied yield on YES positions suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity distortion.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely unlikely move to $12,550 at just 3¢, implying the Rolex Index needs to surge roughly 50%+ from current levels in 14 days, yet the astronomical 86,061.9% implied yield on YES positions suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity distortion. With only $83.76 in 24-hour volume against $6.57M open interest, the thin liquidity and wide cliff risk index of 32 indicate this is a low-conviction market vulnerable to manipulation or data errors. The 50% price increase over 7 days (2¢ to 3¢) is notable but still leaves YES at a vanishingly small probability, making this either a speculative lottery bet or a potential arbitrage opportunity if the true probability is materially higher.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7f2972df8808a6288bf6088bdd5ddffe2944afb5819d3a35177c878c9e2f1adc yes 100