Will the Rolex Index hit $12,650 (HIGH) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Rolex Index hit $12,650 (HIGH) by April 30?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $5.9M open interest, suggesting the $0.03 price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 86,061.9% implied yield on YES contracts.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $5.9M open interest, suggesting the $0.03 price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 86,061.9% implied yield on YES contracts. With only 14 days to expiry and the Rolex Index needing a substantial rally to $12,650, the extraordinarily high yield combined with the neutral regime score (0.409) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates significant tail-risk pricing rather than fundamental conviction. The flat 7-day price action at 3¢ and wide 2¢ spread further underscore the illiquidity problem, making this contract difficult to trade at posted prices.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6b9973438e25223b4bad038517889dd52f3c8af10315a996247980eb59e7cc5a yes 100