SimpleFunctions

Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30

Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30 is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

7¢ current

9¢
0¢10¢20¢
May 19, 2026Jun 15, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, (48.403602° N, 37.117327° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Outcome

Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$48K

Identifier

0x0d41f6af...b27a

Jun 18, 2026, 6:15 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

7¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:15 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$48K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$48K

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 7¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
6¢142
5¢170
4¢105
3¢1.3K
AskSize
7¢157
8¢120
9¢255
11¢152
58¢5
59¢171
72¢720
73¢267

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, (48.403602° N, 37.117327° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x0d41f6af…b27a

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$48K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30 7¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.