Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by...
Leader sits at 21% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
June 30
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$879
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: June 30
0x3e63b0…af1f
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: June 30
0xbf175d…13fa
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: June 30
0x208a4b…0610
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: July 31
0xe271ff…9e0a
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: June 30
0x3e3143…3643
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: June 30
0x0d41f6…b27a
What moved the line
- Jun 16June 30↑6pp16→22¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14June 30↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12June 30↑4pp4→8¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14July 31↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13June 30↓3pp20→17¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...last 3% · 0d
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...last 64% · 0d
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026last 3% · 0d
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In ukraine
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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