Will Russia enter Svitle by...
Leader sits at 15% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
May 31
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$953
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Svitle by
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: June 30
0x0d41f6…b27a
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: May 31
0x46ea2e…77d5
Analysis
This probability reflects the aggregated market view that Russia will enter Svitle by a specified deadline, currently estimated at 5%. The low probability suggests market participants believe Russian forces are unlikely to capture this settlement within the relevant timeframe. Market pricing appears influenced by the current pace of Russian advances in southeastern Ukraine and logistical constraints on further territorial gains. Related settlements show varied probabilities: Novooleksandrivka by May 31 is priced at 74%, suggesting imminent risk, while Orikhiv by July 31 sits at 26%, indicating slower expected progress northward. The main catalyst affecting this probability will be operational developments on the ground—particularly Russian military movements, Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and whether Russian forces maintain momentum or face supply or personnel limitations. Resolution depends on confirmed Russian control of the specified location by the deadline, typically established through geolocation verification or official reports.
- ›Current Russian advance rate and whether forces are positioned within striking distance of Svitle
- ›Status of Russian supply lines and logistical capacity to sustain offensive operations in the region
- ›Ukrainian defensive posture and available reserves near Svitle compared to other contested areas
- ›Comparison to market pricing on adjacent settlements (Novooleksandrivka at 74%, Orikhiv at 26%) which may indicate expected sequencing of territorial claims
- ›Seasonal factors and ground conditions affecting military mobility in the May-June timeframe
What moved the line
- May 2June 30↓26pp46→20¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↓22pp41→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 1June 30↑18pp28→46¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↓14pp40→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓11pp27→16¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (15% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.