Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by...
Leader sits at 76% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
May 31
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
May 31
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$15K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: July 31
0xe271ff…9e0a
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: June 30
0x208a4b…0610
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: May 31
0x5298a3…fd39
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by...?: May 31
0x90e100…af8d
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: June 30
0x0d41f6…b27a
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?: May 31
0x6fd1df…af1c
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: June 30
0x3e63b0…af1f
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: June 30
0x3e3143…3643
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...?: May 31
0xb744bc…7dc5
Will Russia enter Stinky by...?: May 31
0xe26dcf…8415
Will Russia enter Myrne by...?: May 31
0x9391cd…31b4
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: June 30
0xbf175d…13fa
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: May 31
0x3d75d9…6384
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?: May 31
0xbd2a19…0f33
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?: May 31
0xda7018…cf6d
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...?: May 31
0x92c95e…fb5f
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...?: May 31
0x43cf56…76c4
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by...?: May 31
0x827311…31d0
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: May 31
0x46ea2e…77d5
Will Russia enter Borova by...?: May 31
0xec843b…de04
What moved the line
- Apr 27May 31↑27pp16→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 2June 30↓26pp46→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓25pp39→14¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↑24pp50→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 1June 30↓24pp70→46¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.