Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. The market is pricing San Diego at just 29% to reach 90 wins, down sharply from 16¢ a week ago, suggesting recent negative sentiment toward the team's prospects.
Analysis
The market is pricing San Diego at just 29% to reach 90 wins, down sharply from 16¢ a week ago, suggesting recent negative sentiment toward the team's prospects. The extreme 457% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the low price floor, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $1,735 open interest indicate minimal liquidity—making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading given how few shares are actually trading. With 205 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a thinly-watched market where the recent 12¢ price drop may not reflect fundamental changes so much as low-volume volatility.
Resolution rules
If San Diego has 90+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T90 yes 100