Will Staphanie Steiner be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Staphanie Steiner be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The astronomical 2095.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that traders view Steiner as an extremely unlikely nominee, though the neutral regime score and modest cliff risk index (32) indicate no imminent catalyst. With 563 days until expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be an abandoned or nascent market lacking sufficient trading activity to establish genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Stephanie Steiner wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIAPRIMARY-04D26-SSTE yes 100