Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
This contract is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$16.7M
Best sibling
California Governor Election Winner: Tom Steyer 42¢
Ticker
KXSPGOV-26OCT04-TFRE
Price history
82¢ current
+9¢Orderbook snapshot
81 / 82¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXSPGOV-26OCT04-TFRE
Event family
US Elections.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$16.7M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner: Choo Mi-ae 92¢
Current share
0%
Tarcísio de Freitas
kalshi · KXSPGOV-26OCT04-TFRE
California Governor Election Winner: Tom Steyer
polymarket · 0x8d62f20324e9e7f1a3c663ab6aac9a2f6e7adb96c6a69ac2cea7e08a71a7f2ef
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep
polymarket · 0x16c63b7cc37f012b9f59ee164ec03877914c701d06d48291ae8d6fc08a088b0d
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: R Senate, D House
polymarket · 0x998bc71817b2d76921d1999ce0f3431cfd5945583667a371280ca2b430b0c06e
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Other
polymarket · 0x7987a821b8032824f1805ee39eb5dfb8f64603e4e9e673259eb76f82b439fd3d
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Republicans Sweep
polymarket · 0xc5eae79d1ffe716572353962eb926b1e3964c500a4880a7a94f58408218ee76b
California Governor Election Winner: Steve Hilton
polymarket · 0x119b6b3b744ac3239c7a71100165d254234eaecea401abde5a3d303bef21d19e
California Governor Election Winner: Kyle Langford
polymarket · 0x0a46731134b06c151d4f939bec58e07d784ed50ed214141286fd8bc9561608a3
California Governor Election Winner: Chad Bianco
polymarket · 0x1a5b898bbfa1e697c19afeef356d9c1a6ecb95d2493c31524d3c75f16f782c3e
California Governor Election Winner: Katie Porter
polymarket · 0x11375fe1cf6665bbdee0cba5c2d48be1dedafab87841bd2eb8bc778c0402f457
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R House
polymarket · 0x0808de4f0cfd47947f2d1be51f9a9c52ea0fec76f73a75cfbe79ddec98d8a908
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner: Choo Mi-ae
polymarket · 0xd07ad157463306284e16a0f897510948a1ff9904c4cbf0992e1421e62a079d38
54
polymarket · 0x38fa3007c7be18a217849262667e39266341cb2fd7b5f8da75472b0a9e420480
California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra
polymarket · 0xa5d79e71e66c9fe122f8b8b3ca6ab7a0e3048bd8508f130746944e92ed79ddf3
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner: Han Jun-ho
polymarket · 0x00b3aad127920666574f5cf65f242de17f76a9011c89d6fe9141615d458457aa
California Governor Election Winner: Alex Padilla
polymarket · 0x433587daba653f972f1bf49d41712ff02a0e73196c3a498a1e9d8e80c6587861
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 82% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.