São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 6 contracts. Kalshi at 50%, Polymarket at 26% — a 24pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
26%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
24pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$517
6 contracts
Top contract
81¢
$421 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 50¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 24pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (50¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito” vs “Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito
Cluster 2
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?: Tarcísio de Freitas
KXSPGOV-26OCT04-TFRE
Cluster 3
Brazil Série A: Winner: São Paulo
Brazil Série A: Winner: São Paulo
0x1b42fe…5e34
Cluster 4
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?: Fernando Haddad
KXSPGOV-26OCT04-FHAD
What moved the line
- Apr 28Winner: São Paulo↑13pp3→16¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Winner: São Paulo↓7pp16→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Tarcísio de Freitas↑6pp73→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Winner: São Paulo↓3pp9→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: São Paulo↑3pp4→7¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.