Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Chad Bianco is priced at an extremely depressed 2¢ with an extraordinary 5,900% implied yield on the YES side, suggesting the market is pricing in near-zero probability despite his status as a potential Republican candidate in California's heavily Democratic state. The 7-day price movement from 1¢ to 2¢ and exceptionally high realized volatility of 3,098% indicate extreme price instability and likely thin liquidity despite $71M in open interest, with the zero spread masking potential execution challenges. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and 3.23 volatility ratio signal this is a highly speculative position vulnerable to sharp repricing if Bianco gains unexpected momentum or if broader political conditions shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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