Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of April?

The 72¢ price implies a 72% probability that Tesla closes above $370 by April 30, 2026, but the extreme implied yield on the "No" side (8720%) signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the 9¢ spread and modest $210k daily volume support this, with only $1.9M open interest across an 11-day window. The realized volatility of 129% combined with a low vol ratio of 0.37 suggests the market is pricing in far less uncertainty than historical price swings warrant, and the neutral regime score with 0.7 info arrivals per hour indicates potential for significant repricing as we approach the April 30 cliff.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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