Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 780 Million Monthly Active Users in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 86% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2027
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Before Apr 1, 2027
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$417K
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
382 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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