SimpleFunctions

Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bps at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting

Cut more than 50bps is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside Will the Bank of Russia.

Price history

12¢ current

+5¢
0¢10¢
May 12, 2026Jun 3, 2026

Contract brief

If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Cut more than 50bps

Rank

#2 of 7

Leader

Cut 50bps 75¢

Range

1¢-75¢

Family volume

$261

Identifier

KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUN19-C50P

Jun 6, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

12¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 6, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

12¢

Spread

Reported volume

$4K

Family rank

#2 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the Bank of Russia

Closes

Jun 19, 2026

Family volume

$261

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 12¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
11¢871
9¢500
4¢288
3¢52
2¢1.2K
AskSize
12¢794
15¢225
16¢500
21¢136
87¢1

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 19, 2026

Identifier

KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUN19-C50P

SF Signal
SF Index
10744.11
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

23636.8%

IY (No)

361.1%

Adj IY

10744%

CRI

8

Overround

-0.0%

LAS

0.09

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

high

Event type

political

Full indicator table

23636.8%
361.1%
Adj IY
10744%
8
Overround
-0.0%
LAS
0.09

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.