Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the April Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting
Leader sits at 75% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cut 50bps
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Cut more than 50bps
Spread
64pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$787
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
13 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Bank of Russia
Will the Bank of Russia Cut 25bps at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUN19-C25
Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?: Maintain current rate
KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUN19-HOLD
Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50bps at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?: Cut 50bps
KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUN19-C50
Will the Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bps at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?: Cut more than 50bps
KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUN19-C50P
Analysis
This 31% probability represents the market's assessment that Russia's central bank will keep its key interest rate unchanged at its April 2026 meeting. The Bank of Russia has faced persistent inflation pressures and currency volatility, which typically motivate rate increases rather than maintenance. The primary driver of this relatively low probability is market expectations for continued monetary tightening given Russia's economic conditions. The resolution will occur when the Bank of Russia announces its rate decision at the scheduled April board meeting, after which the contract outcome becomes certain. Key variables include recent inflation data, ruble exchange rate movements, and any statements from Bank of Russia leadership about policy direction.
- ›Recent consumer price inflation readings and year-over-year inflation trends relative to the central bank's target range
- ›Ruble exchange rate performance and volatility in the weeks leading up to the April board decision
- ›Previous Bank of Russia rate decisions and forward guidance from officials regarding the trajectory of monetary policy
- ›Global energy prices and commodity market movements, which significantly impact Russia's economic outlook and inflation
- ›Timeline alignment: the April 2026 board meeting date determines when uncertainty resolves to a definitive outcome
What moved the line
- Jun 1Cut 50bps↓7pp83→76¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Cut more than 50bps↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Cut 50bps↓3pp77→74¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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