Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.46 on Apr 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.46 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an 87% probability that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.46/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the extreme 21,023% implied yield on the No side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 87% probability that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.46/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the extreme 21,023% implied yield on the No side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 12-cent spread on just $124 open interest, combined with a 4-cent price decline over 7 days despite the high Yes probability, indicates this is likely a thinly-traded niche market where the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus. With 12 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, traders should be cautious about the reliability of these odds given the minimal liquidity.
Resolution rules
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.46 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.460 yes 100