Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.51 on Apr 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.51 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation, surging 46 percentage points over seven days from 63¢ to 92¢, suggesting either new bullish information about H200 pricing or algorithmic repositioning ahead of the April 30 resolution date.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation, surging 46 percentage points over seven days from 63¢ to 92¢, suggesting either new bullish information about H200 pricing or algorithmic repositioning ahead of the April 30 resolution date. The extreme 36,288.6% implied yield on the "No" side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and a 99¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing—the market may be overconfident in the Yes outcome given the thin order book and $365 open interest. With only 12 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, this contract faces heightened execution risk, and the 92% probability appears aggressive relative to the market's actual depth.
Resolution rules
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.51 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.510 yes 100