Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

The Iranian regime fall market is pricing in a 20% probability with an exceptionally high Yes-side implied yield of 572%, suggesting significant tail-risk asymmetry and potential underpricing of regime change scenarios given the volatile geopolitical environment. With $341M in open interest against only $63.7M in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate relative to position size, and the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable market efficiency despite the extreme yield differential. The flat price action over seven days (19¢ to 20¢) combined with a neutral regime score of 0.409 suggests the market is currently stable, though the 255-day timeframe leaves substantial room for geopolitical shocks to materially shift positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade