What is the current probability for "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 815.8% and 25.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 15/18¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $258.38·OI $105,167.26·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T200

7-day price131 snapshots · 95 regime

17¢15¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 22

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72Close-time delta 5900h

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $200 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 815.8%

IY (No) 25.4%

Adj IY 653%

CRI 6

RV 570%

VR 1.70

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	815.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	25.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	653%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	570%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.70	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:32 AM

SF edge 11.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (2)

NO +11¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +29¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T200 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →