Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 31% probability reflects a substantial yes-side yield advantage of 381.3% against just 52.2% for no, suggesting the market may be underpricing tail risk for WTI reaching $150.01 given oil's historical volatility and geopolitical sensitivity over a 259-day window.
Analysis
The 31% probability reflects a substantial yes-side yield advantage of 381.3% against just 52.2% for no, suggesting the market may be underpricing tail risk for WTI reaching $150.01 given oil's historical volatility and geopolitical sensitivity over a 259-day window. Recent price weakness (30¢ to 27¢ in 7 days) combined with modest 24h volume of $3,635 and a 3¢ spread indicates thin liquidity that could amplify moves, while the realized volatility of 413% and vol ratio of 2.44 signal elevated uncertainty about directional conviction. The cliff risk index of 3 and high information arrival rate (0.6/h) suggest this contract remains sensitive to energy market shocks, making the current pricing potentially exploitable for those with conviction on geopolitical or supply-side catalysts.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $150 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T150 yes 100