Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 32% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$115.01 or above
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
$125.01 or above
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$48K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $180.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T180
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $160.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $160.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T160
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $200.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T200
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $115.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T115
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $150.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T150
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $130.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T130
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $140.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T140
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $120.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $125.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T125
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $135.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T135
Analysis
The market is pricing a 75% probability that crude oil's highest daily settlement price will reach $115.01 or higher by year-end 2026. This threshold sits roughly 13–15% above current price levels, reflecting expectations of modest appreciation over the next eight months. The probability is driven by two competing forces: structural support from OPEC+ production management and geopolitical risk premiums, which push higher; and demand concerns tied to global economic growth forecasts, which weigh lower. Near-term price action matters most—the related contracts show traders split on whether oil will clear $103 by May 4 and $109 by May 8, suggesting uncertainty about immediate direction. Outcomes in Q2 energy data releases, Fed policy moves, and Middle East developments will likely shift this probability meaningfully.
- ›WTI is currently trading ~$99–$102; reaching $115.01 requires sustained price appreciation of 13–15% over eight months
- ›OPEC+ production decisions and compliance announcements through June and beyond will directly influence supply-side pressure
- ›Near-term contracts show only 50% probability of clearing $103 by May 4 and 30% probability of $109 by May 8, indicating low conviction on immediate upside
- ›A $135.01 ceiling contract trades at 46%, suggesting market views anything above the $115 target as lower-probability tail risk
- ›Demand-side catalysts—central bank policy, recession signals, and economic growth revisions—could reverse the 75% probability if they deteriorate
What moved the line
- Jun 14$115.01 or above↓7pp48→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16$115.01 or above↓7pp36→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15$130.01 or above↓7pp31→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15$140.01 or above↓6pp25→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16$120.01 or above↓6pp31→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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