Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 34% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$115.01 or above
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
$120.01 or above
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$41K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
99 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $180.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T180
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $115.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T115
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $200.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $200.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T200
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $150.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $150.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T150
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $125.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T125
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $120.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $130.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T130
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $140.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $140.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T140
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $135.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T135
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $160.01 by Dec 31, 2026?: $160.01 or above
KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T160
Analysis
This market estimates a 42% probability that WTI crude oil's front-month contract will reach at least $115.01 at some point before the end of 2026. The current price level and geopolitical risk appetite are the primary drivers of this probability. Oil prices respond strongly to expectations about global supply disruptions, demand destruction from economic slowdowns, and OPEC production decisions. The probability would rise if markets price in significant supply-side risks or fall if demand weakens further. Key upcoming catalysts include quarterly GDP data, OPEC+ meeting announcements, and any major geopolitical escalation affecting production. The pricing suggests traders view a $115 print as moderately likely but not the base case, with substantially lower odds for higher price targets like $135 or $180.
- ›WTI front month is currently trading roughly $10-20 below the $115.01 threshold, requiring an 8-20% rally from typical recent price ranges
- ›OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply expectations; their next scheduled meetings will affect near-term price direction
- ›Seasonal demand patterns peak in late summer and early winter; winter heating demand through Q4 2026 could create upside price pressure
- ›Recent 24-hour volume of $47,884 on the $115 contract represents the highest among all price-level outcomes, indicating active trader interest and disagreement on the outcome
- ›Economic recession signals or demand destruction from slower growth would push probabilities downward, while supply disruptions or supply-cut announcements would push upward
What moved the line
- Sep 17$120.01 or above↑7pp34→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17$115.01 or above↑6pp42→48¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17$125.01 or above↑5pp29→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18$115.01 or above↓4pp48→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18$125.01 or above↓4pp34→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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