What is the current probability for "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 255.9% and 81.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes contract has collapsed 28 percentage points over seven days to 26¢, suggesting recent oil price weakness has substantially reduced conviction in a $135+ WTI spike by year-end despite 259 days remaining.

██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

36¢

Bid/Ask 36/40¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $857.58·OI $66,920.48·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T135

7-day price367 snapshots · 85 regime

58¢36¢ current

Apr 818¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

The Yes contract has collapsed 28 percentage points over seven days to 26¢, suggesting recent oil price weakness has substantially reduced conviction in a $135+ WTI spike by year-end despite 259 days remaining. The extreme 381% implied yield on Yes combined with realized volatility of 324% and a 1.99 vol ratio indicates the market is pricing in significant tail risk, though the 12¢ spread and modest $862 daily volume suggest limited liquidity for large position sizing. With WTI currently trading well below $135 and neutral regime conditions, the market appears to be fairly pricing a low-probability but high-impact geopolitical or supply shock scenario.

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $135 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 255.9%

IY (No) 81.0%

Adj IY 228%

CRI 2

RV 569%

VR 3.19

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	255.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	81.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	228%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	569%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.19	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:45 AM

SF edge 25.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (5)

NO +25¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +11¢thesis — Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support

NO +27¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +46¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +11¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T135 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →