Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 above $2.00 in August 2026
Above $2.00 is priced at 86¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 11 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $.
Price history
86¢ current
+61¢Contract brief
If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $2.00
Rank
#2 of 11
Leader
Above $1.50 96¢
Range
11¢-96¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXH200MS-26AUG-2.000
Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$85
Family rank
#2 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $2 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXH200MS-26AUG-2.000
Event family
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Above $1.50 96¢
Current share
5%
Above $1.50
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-1.500
Above $2.00
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-2.000
Above $2.50
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-2.500
Above $3.00
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-3.000
Above $3.50
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-3.500
Above $4.00
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-4.000
Above $4.50
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-4.500
Above $5.00
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-5.000
Above $5.50
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-5.500
Above $6.00
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-6.000
Above $6.50
kalshi · KXH200MS-26AUG-6.500
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Prediction Markets Are Building a Yield Curve for AI Compute
B200 GPU rental markets now price AI compute as a tradable curve across Kalshi, Polymarket, Ornn, and cloud spot prices.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident
A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 86% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.