SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 above $6.50 in August 2026

Above $6.50 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 11 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $.

Price history

9¢ current

+2¢
0¢25¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $6.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $6.50

Rank

#11 of 11

Leader

Above $1.50 96¢

Range

11¢-96¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXH200MS-26AUG-6.500

Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago

Implied probability

9¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

13¢

Spread

24h volume

$114

Family rank

#11 of 11

11 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 13¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
11¢730
10¢500
2¢49
AskSize
13¢350
14¢500
15¢58
17¢300
97¢45

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $6.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Identifier

KXH200MS-26AUG-6.500

SF Signal
SF Index
3942.25
Regime
neutral

Browse this series

GPU Cloud Compute Hourly Price Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXH series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3942.3%

IY (No)

60.2%

Adj IY

3942%

CRI

8

RV

58257%

VR

19.48

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3942.3%
60.2%
Adj IY
3942%
8
RV
58257%
VR
19.48
IAR
1.2/h
Overround
4.2%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Blogtech

Prediction Markets Are Building a Yield Curve for AI Compute

B200 GPU rental markets now price AI compute as a tradable curve across Kalshi, Polymarket, Ornn, and cloud spot prices.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.