Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in May 2027
Leader sits at 97% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1.50
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above $2.50
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
200 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.00 in August 2026?: Above $4.00
KXH200MS-26AUG-4.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.50 in September 2026?: Above $5.50
KXH200MS-26SEP-5.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in September 2026?: Above $2.50
KXH200MS-26SEP-2.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.50 in October 2026?: Above $6.50
KXH200MS-26OCT-6.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.00 in July 2027?: Above $6.00
KXH200MS-27JUL-6.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in August 2026?: Above $4.50
KXH200MS-26AUG-4.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.50 in July 2027?: Above $6.50
KXH200MS-27JUL-6.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.00 in September 2026?: Above $6.00
KXH200MS-26SEP-6.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.50 in May 2027?: Above $5.50
KXH200MS-27MAY-5.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.00 in May 2027?: Above $6.00
KXH200MS-27MAY-6.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in October 2026?: Above $1.50
KXH200MS-26OCT-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.50 in July 2027?: Above $5.50
KXH200MS-27JUL-5.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.00 in February 2027?: Above $2.00
KXH200MS-27FEB-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in January 2027?: Above $2.50
KXH200MS-27JAN-2.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.50 in June 2027?: Above $6.50
KXH200MS-27JUN-6.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.50 in February 2027?: Above $6.50
KXH200MS-27FEB-6.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.00 in October 2026?: Above $6.00
KXH200MS-26OCT-6.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in February 2027?: Above $2.50
KXH200MS-27FEB-2.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.50 in August 2026?: Above $5.50
KXH200MS-26AUG-5.500
Analysis
This market estimates a 96% probability that NVIDIA's H200 chip will trade at an average monthly compute price above $5.00 in May 2027. The high confidence reflects current pricing trends and existing demand patterns, though it assumes relatively stable market conditions over the next 11 months. Prices could move lower if GPU oversupply emerges, new competing chips significantly undercut H200 pricing, or cryptocurrency mining demand softens. Conversely, prices could remain elevated if enterprise AI adoption accelerates faster than supply can accommodate. The May 2027 resolution depends on actual trading data from that month, making near-term pricing momentum and supply-chain announcements key drivers of market sentiment.
- ›Current H200 spot pricing and historical monthly average volatility will establish a baseline for extrapolating to May 2027
- ›Announced production capacity expansions by NVIDIA or its foundry partners could increase supply and pressure prices downward
- ›Competitive launches of alternative high-compute chips (AMD MI series, Intel, others) may fragment demand and erode H200 pricing power
- ›Enterprise and AI datacenter spending patterns through late 2026 and early 2027 will determine whether demand sustains current price levels
- ›Cryptocurrency mining resurgence or collapse would act as a secondary demand shock with material price impact
What moved the line
- Aug 9Above $5.50↑16pp17→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above $4.50↑14pp45→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above $4.00↑13pp78→91¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above $2.50↑13pp70→83¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above $2.50↓12pp82→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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