Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 64% over seven days to 63¢, suggesting recent data or policy developments have shifted expectations toward higher ICE removal numbers.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 64% over seven days to 63¢, suggesting recent data or policy developments have shifted expectations toward higher ICE removal numbers. The extremely asymmetric yield profile—249.9% on the No side versus 79.1% on the Yes side—indicates the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, with traders demanding significant compensation to bet against the 400,000 threshold despite the current 63% probability. Liquidity remains thin at $2,766.70 open interest with only $107.72 in daily volume, so the sharp price movement and high volatility (247% realized) may reflect low-friction trading rather than deep conviction, warranting caution on the reliability of this probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the number of ICE removals is above 400,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T400000 yes 100