What is the current probability for "Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 29, 2028. 801 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 47.4% and 43.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

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50¢

Bid/Ask 49/50¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $401,947.13·OI $5,508,865.45·Closes Jun 29, 2028·801d remaining

KXNBA-26-OKC

7-day price50 snapshots · 121 regime

50¢49¢ current

Apr 939¢Apr 20

Analysis

3d ago

The market is pricing Oklahoma City at a modest 46% probability with healthy liquidity ($4.2M open interest, $871K daily volume) and a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting efficient pricing. The 55.4% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 27% risk-adjusted yield, indicating the market may be compensating for tail risk or uncertainty around the team's trajectory over the next 805 days. Recent price movement from 43¢ to 45¢ shows modest bullish momentum, though the neutral regime score (0.341) suggests no strong directional conviction in the broader market.

Resolution rules

If Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 47.4%

IY (No) 43.8%

Adj IY 46%

CRI 1

RV 118%

VR 1.70

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	47.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	43.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	46%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	118%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.70	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/20/2026, 9:30:40 AM

Depth change (1h) -0.0%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/20/2026, 9:23:40 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA-26-OKC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →