CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets: CDT Real Oruro (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 61% across 2 contracts. Kalshi at 57%, Polymarket at 64% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
57%
1 contract
Polymarket
64%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2.9M
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 29, 2028
757 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 57¢ · Polymarket 64¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (57¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (64¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals” vs “2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio
KXNBA-26-SAS
Cluster 2
2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs
2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs
0xb6b3d7…ae73
What moved the line
- Jun 1San Antonio↑20pp44→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 31San Antonio↑18pp26→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 31San Antonio Spurs↑17pp25→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 29San Antonio Spurs↑8pp15→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 29San Antonio↑4pp20→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- SD-AL Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
- NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 95% · 0d
- IA-02 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 96% · 0d
- New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 4% · 0d
- IA-01 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (61% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.