SimpleFunctions
2 source contracts·Kalshi 1 + Polymarket 1·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 29, 2028 · 754d

CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets: O/U 1.5

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 2 contracts. Kalshi at 20%, Polymarket at 20%.

Implied probability

20%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

20%

1 contract

Polymarket

20%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

0pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$7.1M

2 contracts

Closes

Jun 29, 2028

754 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 29% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 29% on 2026-06-06
Aggregate of 2 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 2 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals” vs “2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals

1 contract$6.0M

Cluster 2

2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs

1 contract$1.1M

Analysis

This market estimates a 42% probability that a match between CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo and CDT Real Oruro produces more than 1.5 goals. The probability reflects moderate expectations for offensive output, sitting near midpoint between low and high-scoring scenarios. The discrepancy between Kalshi (47%) and Polymarket (39%) suggests uncertainty about how to weight recent team performance, defensive capabilities, and playing conditions. The match outcome will depend primarily on whether these teams' typical goal-scoring patterns hold and whether defensive solidity limits opportunities. Resolution occurs immediately upon match completion, making this a straightforward binary outcome dependent on actual goals scored during full-time play.

  • Head-to-head historical goal totals in previous meetings between these specific teams and their typical over/under rates
  • Current goal-scoring and defensive metrics for both teams across their recent league matches this season
  • Home/away performance split, particularly San Antonio Bulo Bulo's record at their stadium versus Real Oruro's performance on the road
  • Injury status of key attacking or defensive players that could significantly alter team lineup and tactical approach
  • Weather conditions on match day and field surface quality, which can materially affect gameplay pace and ball control

What moved the line

  • Jun 3San Antonio Spurs22pp4264¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 1San Antonio20pp4464¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 6San Antonio Spurs20pp4727¢ · Polymarket
  • May 31San Antonio18pp2644¢ · Kalshi
  • May 31San Antonio Spurs17pp2542¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.