Upper bound of the federal funds rate above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting
Above 4.00% is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above.
Price history
33¢ current
+28¢Contract brief
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.00%
Rank
#14 of 16
Leader
Above 0.75% 85¢
Range
3¢-85¢
Family volume
$132
Identifier
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
May 26, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$37
Family rank
#14 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Closes
Jan 27, 2027
Family volume
$132
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 27, 2027
Identifier
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
Event family
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$132
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 0.75% 85¢
Current share
28%
Above 0.75%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T0.75
Above 1.25%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T1.25
Above 0.00%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T0.00
Above 0.25%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T0.25
Above 2.50%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T2.50
Above 2.25%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T2.25
Above 2.75%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T2.75
Above 1.00%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T1.00
Above 0.50%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T0.50
Above 2.00%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T2.00
Above 1.75%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T1.75
Above 1.50%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T1.50
Above 3.50%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T3.50
Above 4.00%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
Above 3.75%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T3.75
Above 4.25%
kalshi · KXFED-27JAN-T4.25
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.558
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.